{"id":416,"date":"2023-01-24T21:58:43","date_gmt":"2023-01-24T21:58:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/?p=416"},"modified":"2023-02-25T15:21:30","modified_gmt":"2023-02-25T15:21:30","slug":"perspectiva-dobanzilor-la-eur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/2023\/01\/24\/perspectiva-dobanzilor-la-eur\/","title":{"rendered":"Perspectiva dobanzilor la EUR"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n<p class=\"has-vivid-red-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Stire<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mai multi membri ai Consiliului Guvernatorilor ai Bancii Centrale Europene au facut declaratii privind perspectivele dobanzilor in zona euro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-vivid-red-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Interpretare<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Care sunt principalele observatii?<\/strong> Guvernatorii din Germania, Lituania, Olanda si Austria sustin necesitatea continuarii hotarate a cresterilor de dobanda la EUR, in pasi de 0.5%, preocupati de cresterile salariale si presiunile inflationiste care raman ridicate. Aceste opinii sunt similare cu cele exprimate ferm saptamana trecuta de catre presedintele BCE, Christine Lagarde. Pe de alta parte, guvernatorii din Italia si Grecia sunt in favoarea unei abordari mai graduale, preocupati de efectul asupra economiei. Guvernatorul Bancii Frantei, secondat de omologul german, considera ca se va atinge un maxim al dobanzilor in vara.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>De ce aceasta divergenta de opinii?<\/strong> Dincolo de particularitatile si situatiile economice diferite intre statele membre ale zonei euro, exista si ratiuni care tin de mecanica politicii monetare. Este evident pentru toti ca dobanzile crescute abrupt vor afecta cererea, prin costuri mai mari cu dobanzile si accesul mai redus la credite. Insa acest efect nu se produce imediat. In plus, bancile centrale tind sa se concentreze pe inflatia de baza (core), care reflecta preturile pe care le pot influenta prin dobanzi. Desi inflatia totala a decelerat, inflatia de baza a fost in crestere recent, iar bancile centrale incearca sa evite o spirala inflationista preturi-salarii, mai ales in contextul deficitului de forta de munca persistent, cum s-a vazut si din raportarile de PMI de astazi. In consecinta, merita urmarita cu mare atentie evolutia cererii si somajului din lunile urmatoare. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Care sunt implicatiile?<\/strong> <strong>Pe moment, asteptari in crestere privind divergenta de politica monetara intre Fed si Banca Centrala Europeana. In urmatoarele trimestre, risc crescut de impact negativ al dobanzilor asupra cererii. Piata pare sa includa in preturi o crestere de 0.5% a dobanzii de catre BCE saptamana viitoare, insa randamentele la titlurile de stat din zona euro nu par a fi aliniate la mesajele agresive de mai sus.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-vivid-red-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Links<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.banque-france.fr\/en\/intervention\/lexpress-joint-interview-governor-joachim-nagel-bundesbank\">L\u2019Express: Joint interview of Fran\u00e7ois Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France) with Joachim Nagel (Bundesbank)<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-01-24\/ecb-rates-latest-shouldn-t-slow-pace-of-hikes-simkus-says?srnd=premium-europe\">ECB Shouldn\u2019t Slow Hikes as Wage Pressures Grow, Simkus Says &#8211; Bloomberg<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/think.ing.com\/articles\/watch-heres-why-were-giving-our-euro-dollar-forecasts-a-factory-reset\/\">Watch: Why we\u2019ve radically changed our euro forecast &#8211; ING<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>Asteptari in crestere privind divergenta de politica monetara intre Fed si Banca Centrala Europeana, risc crescut in urmatoarele trimestre de impact negativ al dobanzilor asupra cererii.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-416","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dobanzi","category-titluri-de-stat"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/416","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=416"}],"version-history":[{"count":22,"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/416\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1318,"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/416\/revisions\/1318"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=416"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=416"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=416"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}