{"id":1258,"date":"2023-02-26T11:32:28","date_gmt":"2023-02-26T11:32:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/?p=1258"},"modified":"2023-02-26T22:13:42","modified_gmt":"2023-02-26T22:13:42","slug":"incotro-merge-economia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/2023\/02\/26\/incotro-merge-economia\/","title":{"rendered":"Incotro merge economia?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-vivid-red-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Stire<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ce spun <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/2023\/02\/19\/stiri-de-urmarit-in-perioada-20-24-02\/\">stirile recente<\/a> despre viitorul economiei in zonele care ne afecteaza? Ca sa stiti ce urmeaza in avans, priviti cu atentie nu doar la Romania, dar si la Europa (principalul partener economic) si SUA (care da tonul general in avans).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-vivid-red-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Interpretare<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Asteptarile sunt de decelerare a economiei, in special a consumului populatiei. Investitiile private scad. Productia industriala inca nu isi revine si produce preponderent pentru comenzile neonorate din trecut. Serviciile beneficiaza pentru moment de reorientarea cheltuielilor dinspre bunuri spre turism si recreere. Raman numai interventiile statului. Inflatia de baza ramane ridicata. Principala &#8220;sansa&#8221; dezinflationista este scaderea consumului, ceea ce ar genera recesiune. Renuntarea la politici energetice naive ar ajuta mult, dar nu este niciun semn incurajator in acest sens. Riscul geopolitic inca nu este reflectat in asteptari. Sa vedem daca cererea populatiei rezista mai bine odata ce trece povara cheltuielilor de iarna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Romania<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Ce creste<\/span>: constructiile (datorita investitiilor statului, vezi <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/2023\/02\/21\/cine-mai-construieste-in-romania\/\">aici<\/a>), serviciile (doar prin recuperarea terenului pierdut in turism, recreere si servicii profesionale pentru companii).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Ce stagneaza<\/span>: vanzarile de retail (cresterea salariilor nu acopera inflatia si dobanzile mari, economiile din pandemie s-au redus), o parte a productiei industriale.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Ce scade<\/span>: productia industriala (cea expusa la cresterile de costuri de productie netransmisibile in preturi la client), volumul pietei imobiliare rezidentiale cu preturi peste medie.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Europa<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Sentimentul suna aparent bine<\/span>. Increderea consumatorilor si indicii achizitiilor din industrie si servicii in zona euro au venit peste asteptari. Activitatea economica s-a imbunatatit la inceputul anului, cu cresteri in turism, recreere, servicii financiare si o parte a productiei industriale. Sunt cresteri in industria alimentara, bunuri de larg consum, echipamente si auto, scaderi in industria chimica si metalurgie. Periferia UE pare a rezista mai bine decat centrul franco-german.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Dar detaliile suna rau<\/span>. Sentimentul de afaceri s-a imbunatatit in Germania, dar imbunatatirea vine exclusiv din asteptarile de viitor, situatia curenta fiind in declarata dificila, iar asteptarile se imbunatatesc probabil doar pentru ca erau foarte proaste anul trecut. Economia Germaniei a scazut, de fapt, in trimestrul IV, dupa estimarile initiale de stagnare. Consumul si investitiile private scad. Economia este salvata in principal de cheltuielile guvernului si productia industriala pe stoc sau pentru comenzi pre-existente inca neonorate (din perioada blocajelor in aprovizionare de anul trecut). A scazut inflatia costurilor de productie in industrie, dar motivele nu sunt ce credeti: livrari mai rapide pe lantul de aprovizionare (nu mai sunt atatea blocaje logistice ca in trecut) si achizitiile sunt in scadere (se reduce lista de comenzi neonorate din trecut, iar comenzile noi nu compenseaza). Continua crestere a inflatiei costurilor in servicii merita atentie in particular, deoarece principalul cost in servicii este forta de munca, deci pericol de spirala inflatie-salarii.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>SUA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Ce creste<\/span>: serviciile de turism, cheltuielile pe alimente.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Ce scade<\/span>: productia industriala, vanzarile de locuinte noi, cheltuielile pe electronice, imbracaminte si bricolaj.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Ce preocupa<\/span>: se produce mai ales pentru comenzile neonorate din trecut, optimismul este bazat exclusiv pe anticipari de viitor din dezvoltarea de noi produse si investitii in marketing, continua angajarile in servicii si industrie care mentin presiunea inflationista din salarii.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-vivid-red-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Links<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/think.ing.com\/articles\/monitoring-romania-february\/\">Monitoring Romania<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.spiegel.de\/international\/world\/the-war-in-ukraine-china-is-reportedly-negotiating-with-russia-to-supply-kamikaze-drones-a-13909157-4740-4f84-830e-fb3c69bc1dff\">China Reportedly Negotiating with Russia To Supply Kamikaze Drones<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/marketintelligence\/en\/mi\/research-analysis\/recession-fears-fade-as-eurozone-flash-pmi-registers-accelerating-economic-growth-in-february-Feb23.html\">Recession fears fade as Eurozone flash PMI registers accelerating economic growth in February<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/economy-finance.ec.europa.eu\/economic-forecast-and-surveys\/business-and-consumer-surveys\/latest-business-and-consumer-surveys_en\">Flash Consumer Confidence Indicator for EU and euro area<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zew.de\/en\/publications\/zew-expertises-research-reports\/research-reports\/business-cycle\/zew-financial-market-survey\">ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ifo.de\/en\/facts\/2023-02-22\/ifo-business-climate-index-rises-february-2023\">ifo Business Climate Index Rises<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/research-and-statistics\/housing-statistics\/existing-home-sales\">Existing-Home Sales<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomcminutes20230201.htm\">FOMC Minutes<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/states-are-flush-with-cash-which-could-soften-a-possible-recession-11675544984?mod=hp_lead_pos6\">States are flush with cash, which could soften a possible recession<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>Care sunt asteptarile pe consum si productie, ce creste, ce scade, ce urmeaza.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1258","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-pib"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1258","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1258"}],"version-history":[{"count":70,"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1258\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1421,"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1258\/revisions\/1421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1258"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1258"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1258"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}