{"id":1212,"date":"2023-02-24T19:57:29","date_gmt":"2023-02-24T19:57:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/?p=1212"},"modified":"2023-02-25T15:22:26","modified_gmt":"2023-02-25T15:22:26","slug":"eur-usd-ron-dobanzi-si-curs-de-schimb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/2023\/02\/24\/eur-usd-ron-dobanzi-si-curs-de-schimb\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR, USD, RON: dobanzi si curs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-vivid-red-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Stire<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Saptamana aceasta a adus stirile indicate <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/2023\/02\/19\/stiri-de-urmarit-in-perioada-20-24-02\/\">aici<\/a> despre inflatie, consum, sentiment si dobanzi. Care sunt asteptarile pietei dupa aceste stiri?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-vivid-red-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Interpretare<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>EUR: continua cresterea dobanzii, usoara apreciere<\/strong>. De ce?\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Inflatia de baza nu scade<\/span>. Deci este nevoie de dobanzi ridicate si, eventual, in crestere in continuare. De ce conteaza si ce este inflatia de baza, <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/2023\/01\/24\/cum-vede-bnr-situatia-actuala\/\">aici<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Salariile continua sa creasca<\/span>, iar somajul ramane foarte scazut. Chiar si in statele din zona euro cu inflatie sub medie solicitarile de cresteri salariale ale marilor sindicate sunt adeseori de peste 10%. Caror angajati le cresc salariile mai repede? Am scris <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/2023\/02\/18\/recesiunea-celor-cu-diploma\/\">aici<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Este strategia de compromis intre riscul de inflatie si riscul de recesiune<\/span>. Exista <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/2023\/01\/24\/perspectiva-dobanzilor-la-eur\/\">doua tabere<\/a> in randul decidentilor din BCE. Unii se tem ca inflatia nu este sub control si vor cresteri agresive de dobanzi in continuare, in timp ce altii cred ca economia va suferi prea mult din cauza dobanzilor mari, al caror efect este intarziat si inca nereflectat in raportarile statistice. Cat timp inflatia de baza nu decelereaza, tabara mai agresiva va reusi sa impuna cresterea dobanzilor, dar mai prudent, pentru a nu impinge economia in recesiune.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>USD: continua cresterea dobanzii, dar in pasi mai mici, curs stabil sau usoara apreciere. <\/strong>De ce?\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Varful pe dobanzi se amana<\/span>. Dolarul se depreciase mizandu-se pe atingerea varfului pe dobanzi in SUA mai devreme decat in zona euro. Dar ultimele date arata ca dobanzile vor creste in continuare la USD: cresterea economica si a salariilor ramane peste asteptari, in timp ce inflatia de baza nu decelereaza.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Cele doua tabere din BCE exista si la Fed<\/span>. Compromisul probabil va fi cresteri de dobanda in pasi mai mici decat pana acum, pentru a evita afectarea economiei. Dar SUA au sanse de a vedea scaderea inflatiei de baza mai devreme decat zona euro, din motive structurale.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Factorul geopolitic si sezonalitatea anuala ajuta dolarul<\/span>. USD tinde sa performeze mai bine in februarie si martie. Iar acum, ca de obicei, activele americane (si dolarul) joaca rol de adapost sigur pentru investitii in momente de risc geopolitic crescut in restul lumii.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>RON: pastrarea nivelului actual al dobanzii, depreciere graduala.<\/strong> De ce?\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">BNR nu vrea sa afecteze economia cu dobanzi prea mari<\/span>. Preocuparea principala pentru 2023 pare a fi acum riscul de decelerarea puternica a economiei datorita cererii, mai degraba decat cresterea inflatiei. Am explicat <a href=\"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/2023\/02\/15\/ce-stim-nou-despre-romania\/\">aici<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Deprecierea graduala a leului ar ajuta competitivitatea industriei<\/span>. Daca dobanzile cresc la euro si dolar, dar raman pe loc la lei, efectul ar fi o depreciere a leului, caeteris paribus. Productia industriala este cea mai afectata acum, iar deficitul comercial pe bunuri a atins un nivel riscant.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Atentie!<\/strong>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Stirile de saptamana aceasta au indicat asteptari economice imbunatatite si inflatie persistenta. Prin urmare, piata reflecta acum in preturi asteptarile ca dobanzile sa atinga un varf in vara si sa ramana ridicate o perioada ceva mai lunga decat se astepta initial. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dar daca priviti cu atentie raportarile, exista multe semne de slabiciune economica, risc geopolitic, efectul negativ intarziat al dobanzilor asupra cererii, dependenta prea mare de schemele de ajutor de stat.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Riscul este sa avem simultan inflatie de costuri de productie persistenta si scaderea cererii<\/span>. Cu alte cuvinte, urmariti in continuare stirile indicate saptamanal. Asteptarile de mai sus se pot schimba repede.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-vivid-red-color has-text-color wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Links<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-02-22\/fed-inclined-toward-more-hikes-to-curb-inflation-minutes-show\">Fed Inclined Toward More Hikes to Curb Inflation, Minutes Show<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomcminutes20230201.htm\">FOMC Minutes<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/bd98983d-6fd9-4f94-abaa-aa6e11be2a98\">ECB board member warns of risk to economic growth if rates are raised too high<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.destatis.de\/EN\/Themes\/Economy\/Prices\/Consumer-Price-Index\/_node.html\">Consumer price index in Germany<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/think.ing.com\/articles\/rates-spark-looking-backward-to-economic-data-and-forward-to-geopolitics\/\">Rates Spark: Looking backward to economic data and forward to geopolitics<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/think.ing.com\/articles\/fx-daily-geopolitics-sees-pro-risk-trades-unwind\/\">Geopolitics sees pro-risk trades unwind<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/fba2101e-aa62-4f73-ad8a-958e442234a9\">Investors increase bets on ECB lifting rates to all-time high<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>Ce asteptari are piata acum si sunt reflectate in preturi.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-curs-de-schimb","category-dobanzi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1212","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1212"}],"version-history":[{"count":26,"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1212\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1319,"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1212\/revisions\/1319"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1212"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1212"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamental.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1212"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}